[SeminaireCREM] Migration, Social Change, and the Early Decline in the United States Fertility

Migration, Social Change, and the Early Decline in the United States Fertility co-écrit avec Alessandra Fogli (Minneapolis FED)

Our study examines the impact of internal migration on the fertility transition in the 19th-century United States. We find evidence that fertility declined at a faster rate in counties experiencing higher rates of outward migration, particularly toward the west- ern frontier. To estimate the causal effect of migration on fertility decline, we leverage the number of acres granted to American war veterans by Congress between 1847 and 1855. Our research explores the propagation of novel family values that influence inter- generational behaviors concerning savings and fertility. Migration, coupled with lim- ited remittance technology, prompted parents to engage in precautionary savings. This phenomenon fostered the decline of the multigenerational family structure rooted in an agricultural economy.